From db31f1aadc6eaa6189f868ded4f02be57a5c35d4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "Eric S. Raymond" Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2002 09:42:58 +0000 Subject: Cleanup. svn path=/trunk/; revision=3674 --- history.html | 79 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------------------ 1 file changed, 40 insertions(+), 39 deletions(-) (limited to 'history.html') diff --git a/history.html b/history.html index 22d7a2fa..ea268b07 100644 --- a/history.html +++ b/history.html @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ - + @@ -7,102 +7,103 @@ Trends in the fetchmail project's growth - +

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$Date: 2001/03/01 04:15:03 $ -

+$Date: 2002/07/28 09:42:58 $ +

Trends in the fetchmail project's growth

-The scattergram below was made with Gnuplot 3.7 from data pulled +

The scattergram below was made with Gnuplot 3.7 from data pulled directly out of the project NEWS file using two custom shellscripts, timeseries and growthplot. If you see a broken-image icon, upgrade to a browser that -can view PNGs.

+can view PNGs.

-The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. The +

The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. The horizontal scale is days since baseline, which is when I started collecting statistics in October 1996 at version 1.9.0. Left vertical scale is number of participants. There is one data point for each release; therefore, the changes in density of marks indicate release -frequency.

+frequency.

-The peak in the earliest part of the graph (before the note "Bad +

The peak in the earliest part of the graph (before the note "Bad addresses dropped") seems to be an artifact; I was not regularly dropping addresses that became invalid at the time. Turnover on the list seems to be about 5% per month (but that's just my estimate, I -don't have numbers on this).

+don't have numbers on this).

-The blue scatter of squares is total +

The blue scatter of squares is total participants. The green scatter of crosses is the count of people on fetchmail-friends after I split the list. The violet scatter of triangles is the population -of fetchmail-announce after the split.

+of fetchmail-announce after the split.

-The brown scatter of diamonds tracks project +

The brown scatter of diamonds tracks project size in lines of code (right vertical axis). The scale relationship -between this scatter and the other three is arbitrary.

+between this scatter and the other three is arbitrary.

-This graph is quite revealing. Several trends stand out:

This graph is quite revealing. Several trends stand out:

-Over time, the project population displays rather consistent linear growth.
+
Over time, the project population displays rather consistent linear growth.
-The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in October +
The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in October 1997, when I declared the code to be out of development and in -maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.
+maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.
-The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in the +
The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in the project's history (the gap in that run happened when I took a two-week -vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.
+vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.
-After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable around -an average of about 250 participants.
+
After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable around +an average of about 250 participants.
-Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the announce list, -among people using fetchmail but not active co-developers.
+
Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the announce list, +among people using fetchmail but not active co-developers.
-The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps logarithmic. +
The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps logarithmic.

-The linear growth trend in population is particularly interesting; a +

The linear growth trend in population is particularly interesting; a priori we might expect geometric or logistic growth, given that the -project spreads by word of mouth.

+project spreads by word of mouth.

-It has been suggested that the linear growth rate is the result of a +

It has been suggested that the linear growth rate is the result of a situation in which both number of projects and the population of eligible programmers are rising on trend curves of the same (probably -exponential) rate.

+exponential) rate.

-There are some other pages doing similar things:

There are some other pages doing similar things:

-Here -are growth statistics on the debhelper packaging utility.
+
Here +are growth statistics on the debhelper packaging utility.
-Here is a page on the -vocabulary of the Linux kernel.
+
Here is a page on the +vocabulary of the Linux kernel.

- +

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$Date: 2001/03/01 04:15:03 $ -

+$Date: 2002/07/28 09:42:58 $ + -

Eric S. Raymond <esr@thyrsus.com>

+
+

Eric S. Raymond <esr@thyrsus.com>

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