From d74327fe08f8edf133117a63ce7ef794d94cc9b9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "Eric S. Raymond" Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2002 09:44:14 +0000 Subject: XML conversion svn path=/trunk/; revision=3675 --- history.html | 177 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------------ 1 file changed, 105 insertions(+), 72 deletions(-) diff --git a/history.html b/history.html index ea268b07..b1246b0e 100644 --- a/history.html +++ b/history.html @@ -1,88 +1,115 @@ - - - - - - -Trends in the fetchmail project's growth - - - -

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Trends in the fetchmail project's growth

+ + + + + + +Trends in the fetchmail project's growth + + + + + + + + + +

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Trends in the fetchmail project's growth

The scattergram below was made with Gnuplot 3.7 from data pulled -directly out of the project NEWS file using two custom shellscripts, -timeseries and growthplot. If you see a broken-image icon, upgrade -to a browser that -can view PNGs.

- -

- -

The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. The -horizontal scale is days since baseline, which is when I started -collecting statistics in October 1996 at version 1.9.0. Left vertical -scale is number of participants. There is one data point for each -release; therefore, the changes in density of marks indicate release -frequency.

+directly out of the project NEWS file using two custom +shellscripts, timeseries and growthplot. If you see a broken-image icon, +upgrade to a browser that can +view PNGs.

+ +

The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. +The horizontal scale is days since baseline, which is when I +started collecting statistics in October 1996 at version 1.9.0. +Left vertical scale is number of participants. There is one data +point for each release; therefore, the changes in density of marks +indicate release frequency.

The peak in the earliest part of the graph (before the note "Bad addresses dropped") seems to be an artifact; I was not regularly -dropping addresses that became invalid at the time. Turnover on the +dropping addresses that became invalid at the time. Turnover on the list seems to be about 5% per month (but that's just my estimate, I don't have numbers on this).

The blue scatter of squares is total -participants. The green scatter of crosses is -the count of people on fetchmail-friends after I split the list. The -violet scatter of triangles is the population -of fetchmail-announce after the split.

The blue scatter of squares is total +participants. The green scatter of crosses +is the count of people on fetchmail-friends after I split the list. +The violet scatter of triangles is the +population of fetchmail-announce after the split.

The brown scatter of diamonds tracks project -size in lines of code (right vertical axis). The scale relationship -between this scatter and the other three is arbitrary.

The brown scatter of diamonds tracks +project size in lines of code (right vertical axis). The scale +relationship between this scatter and the other three is +arbitrary.

This graph is quite revealing. Several trends stand out:

-
Over time, the project population displays rather consistent linear growth.
+
Over time, the project population displays rather consistent +linear growth.
+
-
The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in October -1997, when I declared the code to be out of development and in -maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.
+
The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in +October 1997, when I declared the code to be out of development and +in maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.
+
-
The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in the -project's history (the gap in that run happened when I took a two-week -vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.
+
The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in +the project's history (the gap in that run happened when I took a +two-week vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.
+
-
After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable around -an average of about 250 participants.
+
After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable +around an average of about 250 participants.
+
-
Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the announce list, -among people using fetchmail but not active co-developers.
+
Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the +announce list, among people using fetchmail but not active +co-developers.
+
-
The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps logarithmic.
+
The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps +logarithmic.
+

The linear growth trend in population is particularly interesting; a -priori we might expect geometric or logistic growth, given that the -project spreads by word of mouth.

The linear growth trend in population is particularly +interesting; a priori we might expect geometric or logistic growth, +given that the project spreads by word of mouth.

It has been suggested that the linear growth rate is the result of a -situation in which both number of projects and the population of -eligible programmers are rising on trend curves of the same (probably -exponential) rate.

It has been suggested that the linear growth rate is the result +of a situation in which both number of projects and the population +of eligible programmers are rising on trend curves of the same +(probably exponential) rate.

There are some other pages doing similar things:

@@ -90,20 +117,26 @@ exponential) rate.

Here are growth statistics on the debhelper packaging utility.

Here is a page on the -vocabulary of the Linux kernel.

Here is a page +on the vocabulary of the Linux kernel.

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$Date: 2002/07/28 09:42:58 $ -

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Eric S. Raymond <esr@thyrsus.com>

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Eric S. Raymond <esr@thyrsus.com>

+ + + -- cgit v1.2.3