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diff --git a/history.html b/history.html index ea268b07..b1246b0e 100644 --- a/history.html +++ b/history.html @@ -1,88 +1,115 @@ -<!doctype HTML PUBLIC "-//W3O//DTD W3 HTML 3.2//EN"> -<HTML> -<HEAD> -<link rev=made href=mailto:esr@snark.thyrsus.com> -<meta name="description" content="Fetchmail participation statistics"> -<meta name="keywords" content="fetchmail, growth, analysis"> -<TITLE>Trends in the fetchmail project's growth</TITLE> -</HEAD> -<BODY> -<table width="100%" cellpadding=0 summary="Canned page header"><tr> -<td width="30%">Back to <a href="/~esr">Eric's Home Page</a> -<td width="30%" align=center>Up to <a href="/~esr/sitemap.html">Site Map</a> -<td width="30%" align=right>$Date: 2002/07/28 09:42:58 $ -</tr></table> -<HR> -<H1 ALIGN=CENTER>Trends in the fetchmail project's growth</H1> +<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" + "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> +<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> +<head> +<link rev="made" href="mailto:esr@snark.thyrsus.com" /> +<meta name="description" +content="Fetchmail participation statistics" /> +<meta name="keywords" content="fetchmail, growth, analysis" /> +<title>Trends in the fetchmail project's growth</title> +<style type="text/css"> +/*<![CDATA[*/ + span.c6 {color: brown} + span.c5 {color: purple} + span.c4 {color: lime} + span.c3 {color: blue} + div.c2 {text-align: center} + h1.c1 {text-align: center} +/*]]>*/ +</style> +</head> +<body> +<table width="100%" cellpadding="0" summary="Canned page header"> +<tr> +<td width="30%">Back to <a href="/~esr">Eric's Home Page</a></td> +<td width="30%" align="center">Up to <a href="/~esr/sitemap.html">Site Map</a></td> +<td width="30%" align="right">$Date: 2002/07/28 09:44:14 $</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<hr /> +<h1 class="c1">Trends in the fetchmail project's growth</h1> <p>The scattergram below was made with Gnuplot 3.7 from data pulled -directly out of the project NEWS file using two custom shellscripts, -<a href="timeseries">timeseries</a> and <a -href="growthplot">growthplot</a>. If you see a broken-image icon, upgrade -to a <a href="http://www.libpng.org/pub/png/pngapbr.html">browser that -can view PNGs</a>.</p> - -<center><img src="growth.png" alt="Fetchmail trends graph"></center> - -<p>The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. The -horizontal scale is days since baseline, which is when I started -collecting statistics in October 1996 at version 1.9.0. Left vertical -scale is number of participants. There is one data point for each -release; therefore, the changes in density of marks indicate release -frequency.</p> +directly out of the project NEWS file using two custom +shellscripts, <a href="timeseries">timeseries</a> and <a +href="growthplot">growthplot</a>. If you see a broken-image icon, +upgrade to a <a +href="http://www.libpng.org/pub/png/pngapbr.html">browser that can +view PNGs</a>.</p> + +<div class="c2"><img src="growth.png" +alt="Fetchmail trends graph" /></div> + +<p>The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. +The horizontal scale is days since baseline, which is when I +started collecting statistics in October 1996 at version 1.9.0. +Left vertical scale is number of participants. There is one data +point for each release; therefore, the changes in density of marks +indicate release frequency.</p> <p>The peak in the earliest part of the graph (before the note "Bad addresses dropped") seems to be an artifact; I was not regularly -dropping addresses that became invalid at the time. Turnover on the +dropping addresses that became invalid at the time. Turnover on the list seems to be about 5% per month (but that's just my estimate, I don't have numbers on this).</p> -<p>The <font color="blue">blue scatter of squares</font> is total -participants. The <font color="lime">green scatter of crosses</font> is -the count of people on fetchmail-friends after I split the list. The -<font color="purple">violet scatter of triangles</font> is the population -of fetchmail-announce after the split.</p> +<p>The <span class="c3">blue scatter of squares</span> is total +participants. The <span class="c4">green scatter of crosses</span> +is the count of people on fetchmail-friends after I split the list. +The <span class="c5">violet scatter of triangles</span> is the +population of fetchmail-announce after the split.</p> -<p>The <font color="brown">brown scatter of diamonds</font> tracks project -size in lines of code (right vertical axis). The scale relationship -between this scatter and the other three is arbitrary.</p> +<p>The <span class="c6">brown scatter of diamonds</span> tracks +project size in lines of code (right vertical axis). The scale +relationship between this scatter and the other three is +arbitrary.</p> -<p>This graph is quite revealing. Several trends stand out: </p> +<p>This graph is quite revealing. Several trends stand out:</p> <ul> <li> -<p>Over time, the project population displays rather consistent linear growth.</p> +<p>Over time, the project population displays rather consistent +linear growth.</p> +</li> <li> -<p>The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in October -1997, when I declared the code to be out of development and in -maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.</p> +<p>The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in +October 1997, when I declared the code to be out of development and +in maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.</p> +</li> <li> -<p>The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in the -project's history (the gap in that run happened when I took a two-week -vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.</p> +<p>The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in +the project's history (the gap in that run happened when I took a +two-week vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.</p> +</li> <li> -<p>After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable around -an average of about 250 participants.</p> +<p>After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable +around an average of about 250 participants.</p> +</li> <li> -<p>Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the announce list, -among people using fetchmail but not active co-developers.</p> +<p>Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the +announce list, among people using fetchmail but not active +co-developers.</p> +</li> <li> -<p>The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps logarithmic.</p> +<p>The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps +logarithmic.</p> +</li> </ul> -<p>The linear growth trend in population is particularly interesting; a -priori we might expect geometric or logistic growth, given that the -project spreads by word of mouth.</p> +<p>The linear growth trend in population is particularly +interesting; a priori we might expect geometric or logistic growth, +given that the project spreads by word of mouth.</p> -<p>It has been suggested that the linear growth rate is the result of a -situation in which both number of projects and the population of -eligible programmers are rising on trend curves of the same (probably -exponential) rate.</p> +<p>It has been suggested that the linear growth rate is the result +of a situation in which both number of projects and the population +of eligible programmers are rising on trend curves of the same +(probably exponential) rate.</p> <p>There are some other pages doing similar things:</p> @@ -90,20 +117,26 @@ exponential) rate.</p> <li> <p><a href="http://kitenet.net/programs/debhelper/stats/">Here</a> are growth statistics on the debhelper packaging utility.</p> +</li> <li> -<p><a href="http://durak.org:81/sean/pubs/kfc/">Here</a> is a page on the -vocabulary of the Linux kernel.</p> +<p><a href="http://durak.org:81/sean/pubs/kfc/">Here</a> is a page +on the vocabulary of the Linux kernel.</p> +</li> </ul> -<HR> -<table width="100%" cellpadding=0 summary="Canned page header"><tr> -<td width="30%">Back to <a href="/~esr">Eric's Home Page</a> -<td width="30%" align=center>Up to <a href="/~esr/sitemap.html">Site Map</a> -<td width="30%" align=right>$Date: 2002/07/28 09:42:58 $ -</tr></table> - -<br clear="left"> -<ADDRESS>Eric S. Raymond <A HREF="mailto:esr@thyrsus.com"><esr@thyrsus.com></A></ADDRESS> -</BODY> -</HTML> +<hr /> +<table width="100%" cellpadding="0" summary="Canned page header"> +<tr> +<td width="30%">Back to <a href="/~esr">Eric's Home Page</a></td> +<td width="30%" align="center">Up to <a href="/~esr/sitemap.html">Site Map</a></td> +<td width="30%" align="right">$Date: 2002/07/28 09:44:14 $</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<br clear="left" /> +<address>Eric S. Raymond <a +href="mailto:esr@thyrsus.com"><esr@thyrsus.com></a></address> +</body> +</html> + |