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diff --git a/history.html b/history.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..7cf4179d --- /dev/null +++ b/history.html @@ -0,0 +1,91 @@ +<!doctype HTML public "-//W3O//DTD W3 HTML 3.2//EN"> +<HTML> +<HEAD> +<link rev=made href=mailto:esr@snark.thyrsus.com> +<meta name="description" content="Fetchmail participation statistics"> +<meta name="keywords" content="fetchmail, growth, analysis"> +<TITLE>Trends in the fetchmail project's growth</TITLE> +</HEAD> +<BODY> +<table width="100%" cellpadding=0><tr> +<td width="30%">Back to <a href="/~esr">Eric's Home Page</a> +<td width="30%" align=center>Up to <a href="/~esr/sitemap.html">Site Map</a> +<td width="30%" align=right>$Date: 1999/09/26 16:53:39 $ +</table> +<HR> +<H1 ALIGN=CENTER>Trends in the fetchmail project's growth</H1> + +The scattergram below was made with Gnuplot 3.7 from data culled directly +out of the project NEWS file using two custom shellscripts, <a +href="timeseries">timeseries</a> and <a +href="growthplot">growthplot</a>.<p> + +<center><img src="growth.png"></center><p> + +The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. The +horizontal scale is days since baseline, which is when I started +collecting statistics in October 1996 at version 1.9.0. Left vertical +scale is number of participants. There is one data point for each +release; therefore, the changes in density of marks indicate release +frequency.<p> + +The peak in the earliest part of the graph (before the note "Bad +addresses dropped") seems to be an artifact; I was not regularly +dropping addresses that became invalid at the time. Turnover on the +list seems to be about 5% per month (but that's my estimate, I don't +have numbers on this).<p> + +The <font color="blue">blue scatter of squares</font> is total +participants. The <font color="lime">green scatter of crosses</font> is +the count of people on fetchmail-friends after I split the list. The +<font color="purple">violet scatter of x marks</font> is the population +of fetchmail-announce after the split.<P> + +The <font color="brown">brown scatter of asterisks</font> tracks project +size in lines of code (right vertical axis). The scale relationship +between this scatter and the other three is arbitrary.<p> + +This graph is quite revealing. Several trends stand out: <p> + +<ul> +<li> +Over time, the project population displays rather consistent linear growth.<p> + +<li> +The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in October +1997, when I declared the code to be out of development and in +maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.<p> + +<li> +The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in the +project's history (the gap in that run happened when I took a two-week +vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.<p> + +<li> +After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable around +an average of about 250 participants.<p> + +<li> +Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the announce list, +among people using fetchmail but not active co-developers.<p> + +<li> +The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps logarithmic. +</ul> + +The linear growth trend in population is particularly interesting; a +priori we might expect geometric or logistic growth, given that the +project spreads by word of mouth. I have not yet been able to +plausibly imagine a growth model that would produce these numbers.<p> + +<HR> +<table width="100%" cellpadding=0><tr> +<td width="30%">Back to <a href="/~esr">Eric's Home Page</a> +<td width="30%" align=center>Up to <a href="/~esr/sitemap.html">Site Map</a> +<td width="30%" align=right>$Date: 1999/09/26 16:53:39 $ +</table> + +<P><ADDRESS>Eric S. Raymond <A HREF="mailto:esr@thyrsus.com"><esr@thyrsus.com></A></ADDRESS> +</BODY> +</HTML> + |